Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Washington Post “Poll” Dems’ at 51% of Senate Control – Wishful Thinking



From The Washington Post, Fix Blog, reveals that there is a slight chance that the Democrats may retain control of the Senate, however, the poll, such as it is, relies on data sets from the Post’s Internal Lab.

The Washington Posts Election Lab suggests the following criteria using New Hampshire as an example: the State of New Hampshire has a 99% chance of remaining Democrat due to the following statistics: Jean Shaheen has raised over $9 million dollars and her share of vote the last election (2012) was at 53%, while Scott Brown has a measly 3 million, and to boot, Obama won reelection in that state by – 53%. (Washington Post Senate Map Interactive click here and have fun.)

One might suggest that although Shaheen safely sailed on the 2012 election coattails and Obama was popular in the state at the time, that no matter how much cash on hand one might have, it may not be enough to push one to say, a win.

One might also suggest that the other seats noted “safe” using these criteria, may be in more jeopardy than the Post would hope. Thus one might also suggest this “lab”, or “poll” is utter nonsense. Although not prone to predicting the future with much accuracy – there are certain models that maybe more reliable, such as actual polls, with at least a modicum of accuracy when using land lines and a decent sample of the electorate.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

2016 Update: Rand Paul – Washington Post “Profiles”, Politico Rand Leads Pack – but..Paul, the Current Threat to the Status Quo



The Washington Post article: Shifting his views Rand Paul Seeks Broader Appeal but May Risk his outsider Image” is an interesting piece, in so much that it relies on articles, his legislation, and of course, those surrounding him, in order to come up with a profile of a “politician”. What is most telling in this article however is the description of Paul by these same sources:

“He’s been characterized as an isolationist,” said Rob Givens, a retired Air Force general living in Kentucky, who has become one of Paul’s advisers on foreign affairs. “He’s not. He’s a realist.”


“I think that Rand has a picture of what a utopia would look like,” the friend added. “And he’s very realistic about how long it would take to get there.”

So what is that utopia, in Paul’s mind? His friend said it would look like 1792, with the government that existed just after the Constitution was ratified.

“You’d have a smaller federal government, where the presidency is probably the weakest branch; you’d have a robust Congress, led by the House of Representatives,” the friend said. “You’d probably have a heck of a lot less taxes.”

(Read full article at here at www.washingtonpost.com

The fact that in trying to define Paul as to who he is, politically, they have found that as he looks to larger responsibility, on a national rather than state scale, that he is pragmatic about his approach, looking at a situation in total, and then swiftly coming to a decision as to where he may or may not stand – it’s call evaluating and reevaluating in the real world. Paul, a doctor, may live in the real world, more than say, a politician who has spent their lives climbing up the ladder, having never been outside of the city council, state legislature, federal legislature, et al. Therefore, the flip-flop tag might not apply to Paul, as it would to say a “John Kerry”. Paul, rather than appearing to be a political opportunist, appears to be a man of prudence, much like a George Washington, Calvin Coolidge, or yes, Ronald Reagan. Therefore, try and they might, (media in general), those drawing conclusions, tend to run up against the brick wall of reality when it comes to defining the indefinable – a non-politician-politician.

Although it is too early to place bets on a 2016 primary let along the general election as the actual players are not known. Paul is leading in the polls in New Hampshire, by 5 points, which considering that the field consists of every known GOP except the deceased, that’s a win. The article by Politico is quick to point out that there are so many in the field, a win’s a moot point. Had the poll, not unlike early polling that pitted Hillary Clinton (only) against three or four GOP contenders, it may have been a much broader win for Paul. That said the polls that will be of most interest in the first of the nation primary state will come after the November’s midterm elections. Should Paul maintain an edge once other hopefuls have their boots on the ground, then, that pragmatic approach will have paid off. It is a matter of question whether the nation is looking for the next best shiny toy, or someone willing to take on the current mess and attempt to right a sinking ship, in a pragmatic yet decisive manner.

Friday, September 12, 2014

Rand Paul – to New Hampshire –Quasi Endorsement from Bill Mahar - Not His Father’s Clone



Rand Paul has taken criticism from the right (most notably standard Republican’s of the “also-ran” stripe) for being an isolationist, and “Ron Paul’s son”, while on the left, it’s about hiring someone who was racist, and staff who plagiarized. In other words, they have zip, but they keep trying simply because he is an enigma – a balanced force who is not afraid of the media or, for that matter, anyone who portends to put words in his mouth, or take things out of context.

This personality, rather than strategy is serving the Kentucky Senator well. The Boston Globe article: Rand Paul Puts Early Emphasis on New Hampshire speaks to his visits to the state, as well as his support there. His events are sold out in NH, from the millennials to standard GOP and African-American’s and libertarians, he’s making in-roads into otherwise non-GOP demographics.

From Iowa to where he has a state presence to Bennington, VT, he is making inroads. Bennington is surprising as a local op-ed opines that he draws a contrast between himself and Hillary Clinton, Paul being the cautious non-war mongering dove, and Clinton being the Hawk, perpetuating wars. Bennington Banner.

Paul’s cautious approach to intervention, suggests a Washington (George) tone, considering, the state of the economy as well as the state of the military. What comes from the fact that Paul is being Paul - an endorsement, of sorts, from an unlikely source. from Republican bashing, Bill Maher, who suggested if Hillary Clinton is the Nominee, he may vote for Rand Paul(Washington CBS Local)

Suffice it to say, he will, if he does decide to run, make this one of the most competitive, inclusive and interesting general elections seen in some time. Between Perry, Cruz, (who are absolutely interesting) and the possibility of Jeb Bush or, good grief, Mitt Romney (who will lose again, as those evangelicals cannot vote for someone who belongs to a “cult religion”) and of course, the “also ran” Rick Santorum, who would not fare well in a broad demographic, one has something to watch. It is, as always, too early to tell who may or may not run in the end but those who indicate an interest, at present, would set the stage for what may become, one of the most watched general election races in history.

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